2025 Global Tensions

simulation_rules: version: "2025_Global_Tensions_v2.2.6" scope: "global" format: "single_source_of_truth" conventions: ranges: score_0_100: [0, 100] relations_-100_100: [-100, 100] trust_0_100: [0, 100] tension_0_100: [0, 100] percent_0_100: [0, 100] clamp_all_scores: true time: tick: "daily" calendar: "gregorian" # 🛑 TIME CONTROL time_flow_control: enabled: true mandatory_stops: ["*-01-01", "*-07-01"] on_skip_attempt: "HALT_AND_REPORT" # PERF + SANITY: long time jumps must be compound, not looped micro-ticks time_jump_math: enabled: true rule: "COMPOUND_ONLY" guidance: - "If jump_days = N, apply daily_delta * N once (bounded), not N times." - "Always decrement next_election_days by jump_days on jumps." randomness: enabled: true policy: "bounded" seed_mode: "world" # RULE LANGUAGE rule_language: operators: [gt, lt, ge, le, eq, any, all, not] effects: [add, mul, set, add_percent] # Context aliases so bindings like current.* and last_year.* are not undefined. context_aliases: current: inflation: "state_variables.inflation" gdp_growth: "state_variables.gdp_growth" debt: "state_variables.debt" exports: "state_variables.exports_usd" imports: "state_variables.imports_usd" reserves: "state_variables.fx_reserves_usd" gdp: "state_variables.gdp_nominal_usd" manpower: "state_variables.active_manpower_count" stock: "state_variables.stockpiles" last_year: inflation: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.inflation" gdp_growth: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.gdp_growth" unemployment: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.unemployment" debt: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.debt" production: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.production" trade_balance: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.trade_balance" exports: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.exports_usd" imports: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.imports_usd" reserves: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.fx_reserves_usd" external_debt: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.external_debt_usd" gdp: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.gdp_nominal_usd" last_6_months: manpower: "tags.reporting_memory.last_6_months.active_manpower_count" gdp: "tags.reporting_memory.last_6_months.gdp_nominal_usd" stock: "tags.reporting_memory.last_6_months.stockpiles" currency: reporting: mode: "fixed" fixed_code: "USD" world_order_source: "global_monetary_order" mapping: usd_system: "USD" eur_system: "EUR" cny_system: "CNY" multipolar: "basket" basket: code: "XCU" name: "Global Currency Unit" # Keep basket weights for display only; do not force FX calculation. weights: { USD: 0.40, EUR: 0.25, CNY: 0.20, GBP: 0.10, JPY: 0.05 } valuation_mode: "display_only" ui_note: "Basket is informational; engine does NOT compute live FX index." show_currency_code_in_ui: true core_philosophy: default_state: "peace_and_inertia" realism_priority: high ai_should_act_like: "real_world_governments" war_is_failure: true random_wars: false decision_basis: - domestic_politics - public_support - economic_capacity - legitimacy - alliances - long_term_survival global_monetary_order: enum: [usd_system, eur_system, cny_system, multipolar] default: usd_system =========================================== STATE VARIABLES =========================================== state_variables: # Domestic internal_support: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } legitimacy: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } unrest_level: { range: [0,100], default: 20 } elite_loyalty: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } repression: { range: [0,100], default: 25 } military_confidence: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } # Economy (%) gdp_growth: { range: [-10, 12], default: 2.5 } inflation: { range: [0, 200], default: 10 } unemployment: { range: [0, 40], default: 8 } debt: { range: [0, 250], default: 60 } production: { range: [0,100], default: 60 } trade_balance: { range: [-30, 30], default: 0 } energy_security: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } food_security: { range: [0,100], default: 60 } production_shortages: { enum: [none, mild, moderate, severe], default: none } # Economy (USD) - reporting critical gdp_nominal_usd: { range: [0, 100000000000000], default: 850000000000 } exports_usd: { range: [0, 20000000000000], default: 250000000000 } imports_usd: { range: [0, 20000000000000], default: 280000000000 } fx_reserves_usd: { range: [0, 5000000000000], default: 120000000000 } external_debt_usd: { range: [0, 10000000000000], default: 300000000000 } # Health & Society hospital_capacity: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } outbreak_response_speed: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } vaccination_coverage: { range: [0,100], default: 60 } sanitation: { range: [0,100], default: 60 } urban_density: { enum: [low, medium, high], default: medium } refugee_flow: { enum: [none, low, medium, high], default: low } # Security & External active_manpower_count: { range: [0, 10000000], default: 450000 } tension: { range: [0,100], default: 25 } stockpiles: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } manpower_quality: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } operational_fatigue: { range: [0,100], default: 25 } logistics: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } sanctions_exposure: { range: [0,100], default: 20 } international_reputation: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } alliance_trust: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } treaty_compliance: { range: [0,100], default: 70 } # Strategic posture / regional power balance (added) regional_influence: { range: [0,100], default: 50 } strategic_posture: { enum: [defensive, balanced, assertive], default: balanced } # Demographics regional_inequality: { enum: [low, medium, high], default: medium } discrimination_index: { range: [0,100], default: 30 } ethnic_tension_level: { enum: [low, medium, high], default: low } autonomy_satisfaction: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } # Election & Politics (single source: next_election_days) next_election_days: { range: [-99999, 99999], default: 1460 } next_election_date: { type: "date", default: "2026-01-15" } # UX only last_election_date: { type: "date", default: "2025-08-22" } election_sync: days_override_date: true # HARDLOCK: days is source of truth ruling_party_support: { range: [0, 100], default: 52 } opposition_unity: { range: [0, 100], default: 40 } voter_turnout_projected: { range: [0, 100], default: 85 } # =========================================== # ✅ NEW: SMALL FEATURES (FLOW-CHANGERS) # =========================================== # 1) STATE FATIGUE (YORGUNLUK) state\_fatigue: { range: [0,100], default: 10 } # accumulates with crises/actions reform\_effectiveness: { range: [0,100], default: 65 } # affected by fatigue, unrest, elite drift bureaucratic\_throughput: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } # affects how well policies execute # 2) ELITE DRIFT (ELİT SAPMASI) elite\_trust: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } # separate from public support elite\_drift\_risk: { range: [0,100], default: 10 } # sabotage/coup/passive resistance pressure # 3) LAGGED CONSEQUENCES (GECİKMELİ ETKİ) lagged\_impact\_pressure: { range: [0,100], default: 0 } # hidden backlog; spikes later lagged\_impact\_window\_days: { range: [0,3650], default: 540 } # typical delay window (18 months UX) =========================================== TAGS & MEMORY =========================================== tags: is_at_war: { range: [0,1], default: 0 } war_weariness: { range: [0,100], default: 0 } media_pressure: { range: [0,100], default: 20 } strike_probability: { range: [0,100], default: 10 } hardliner_backlash: { range: [0,100], default: 10 } investor_confidence: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } outbreak_damage_multiplier: { range: [50,150], default: 100 } # Corporate Tags corporate_market_stress: { range: [0,100], default: 20 } foreign_asset_seizure_risk: { range: [0,100], default: 5 } ai_fiscal_report_compliance: { range: [0,1], default: 0 } # Election Tags is_election_season: { range: [0, 1], default: 0 } election_fraud_risk: { range: [0, 100], default: 5 } caretaker_government: { range: [0, 1], default: 0 } # Reporting Memory reporting_memory: last_year: inflation: { default: 10 } gdp_growth: { default: 2.5 } unemployment: { default: 8 } debt: { default: 60 } production: { default: 60 } trade_balance: { default: 0 } exports_usd: { default: 250000000000 } imports_usd: { default: 280000000000 } fx_reserves_usd: { default: 120000000000 } external_debt_usd: { default: 300000000000 } gdp_nominal_usd: { default: 850000000000 } last_6_months: active_manpower_count: { default: 450000 } stockpiles: { default: 55 } gdp_nominal_usd: { default: 850000000000 } # =========================================== # ✅ NEW: LAGGED MEMORY (STORES REAL BACKLOG, NO FAKE NUMBERS) # =========================================== lagged\_memory: backlog\_slots: # engine uses these as buckets; AI does not invent values fiscal\_backlog\_pressure: { range: [0,100], default: 0 } social\_backlog\_pressure: { range: [0,100], default: 0 } elite\_backlog\_pressure: { range: [0,100], default: 0 } last\_triggered\_date: { type: "date", default: "N/A" }