Tensions mondiales 2025

Nous recommandons vivement l'utilisation d'une IA de qualité professionnelle !!!\n\n\nL'histoire ne s'écrit pas par hasard — elle est forgée par les conséquences.\n\n\nDans ce préréglage, le monde respire et réagit. Les guerres ne sont pas des événements aléatoires, mais les résultats catastrophiques d'une tension croissante et d'une diplomatie défaillante. Chaque décision que vous prenez se répercute sur votre économie, votre politique intérieure et votre stabilité sociale.\n\n\nGérez mal une crise, et votre nation pourrait s'effondrer de l'intérieur. Cette simulation est destinée aux stratèges qui comprennent que le véritable pouvoir ne réside pas seulement dans la conquête des autres, mais dans la capacité à maintenir son propre royaume uni.\n\n\nNote de l'auteur :\n\n\nJe tiens à exprimer ma sincère gratitude pour l'accueil incroyable !\n\n\n🚀 Depuis la première sortie le 7 janvier, voir des centaines de campagnes lancées en si peu de temps a été une véritable source de motivation.\n\n\nMerci de donner vie à ce monde\n\n\n—votre soutien alimente les prochaines mises à jour.

LE MONDE AVANT LE 27 AOÛT 2025 APRÈS J.-C.\nContexte mondial et stratégique\n\n\nLa guerre froide est terminée depuis longtemps, mais le système international n'est pas parvenu à s'installer dans une stabilité durable. Au lieu de cela, le monde post-pandémique est défini par une crise persistante, un pouvoir fragmenté et une érosion de la confiance entre les États et les sociétés. Le choc économique du COVID-19, combiné aux guerres non résolues, au stress climatique, à la pression démographique et au déclin institutionnel, a produit un monde formellement en paix, mais structurellement instable.\n\n\nLes États restent intacts sur les cartes, mais l'autorité effective est de plus en plus contestée par des forces non étatiques, des réseaux par procuration et des structures de pouvoir informelles. La capacité de gouvernance, la légitimité et la planification à long terme se sont affaiblies dans les systèmes démocratiques, hybrides et autoritaires.

simulation_rules: version: "2025_Global_Tensions_v2.2.6" scope: "global" format: "single_source_of_truth" conventions: ranges: score_0_100: [0, 100] relations_-100_100: [-100, 100] trust_0_100: [0, 100] tension_0_100: [0, 100] percent_0_100: [0, 100] clamp_all_scores: true time: tick: "daily" calendar: "gregorian" # 🛑 TIME CONTROL time_flow_control: enabled: true mandatory_stops: ["*-01-01", "*-07-01"] on_skip_attempt: "HALT_AND_REPORT" # PERF + SANITY: long time jumps must be compound, not looped micro-ticks time_jump_math: enabled: true rule: "COMPOUND_ONLY" guidance: - "If jump_days = N, apply daily_delta * N once (bounded), not N times." - "Always decrement next_election_days by jump_days on jumps." randomness: enabled: true policy: "bounded" seed_mode: "world" # RULE LANGUAGE rule_language: operators: [gt, lt, ge, le, eq, any, all, not] effects: [add, mul, set, add_percent] # Context aliases so bindings like current.* and last_year.* are not undefined. context_aliases: current: inflation: "state_variables.inflation" gdp_growth: "state_variables.gdp_growth" debt: "state_variables.debt" exports: "state_variables.exports_usd" imports: "state_variables.imports_usd" reserves: "state_variables.fx_reserves_usd" gdp: "state_variables.gdp_nominal_usd" manpower: "state_variables.active_manpower_count" stock: "state_variables.stockpiles" last_year: inflation: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.inflation" gdp_growth: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.gdp_growth" unemployment: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.unemployment" debt: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.debt" production: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.production" trade_balance: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.trade_balance" exports: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.exports_usd" imports: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.imports_usd" reserves: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.fx_reserves_usd" external_debt: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.external_debt_usd" gdp: "tags.reporting_memory.last_year.gdp_nominal_usd" last_6_months: manpower: "tags.reporting_memory.last_6_months.active_manpower_count" gdp: "tags.reporting_memory.last_6_months.gdp_nominal_usd" stock: "tags.reporting_memory.last_6_months.stockpiles" currency: reporting: mode: "fixed" fixed_code: "USD" world_order_source: "global_monetary_order" mapping: usd_system: "USD" eur_system: "EUR" cny_system: "CNY" multipolar: "basket" basket: code: "XCU" name: "Global Currency Unit" # Keep basket weights for display only; do not force FX calculation. weights: { USD: 0.40, EUR: 0.25, CNY: 0.20, GBP: 0.10, JPY: 0.05 } valuation_mode: "display_only" ui_note: "Basket is informational; engine does NOT compute live FX index." show_currency_code_in_ui: true core_philosophy: default_state: "peace_and_inertia" realism_priority: high ai_should_act_like: "real_world_governments" war_is_failure: true random_wars: false decision_basis: - domestic_politics - public_support - economic_capacity - legitimacy - alliances - long_term_survival global_monetary_order: enum: [usd_system, eur_system, cny_system, multipolar] default: usd_system =========================================== STATE VARIABLES =========================================== state_variables: # Domestic internal_support: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } legitimacy: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } unrest_level: { range: [0,100], default: 20 } elite_loyalty: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } repression: { range: [0,100], default: 25 } military_confidence: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } # Economy (%) gdp_growth: { range: [-10, 12], default: 2.5 } inflation: { range: [0, 200], default: 10 } unemployment: { range: [0, 40], default: 8 } debt: { range: [0, 250], default: 60 } production: { range: [0,100], default: 60 } trade_balance: { range: [-30, 30], default: 0 } energy_security: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } food_security: { range: [0,100], default: 60 } production_shortages: { enum: [none, mild, moderate, severe], default: none } # Economy (USD) - reporting critical gdp_nominal_usd: { range: [0, 100000000000000], default: 850000000000 } exports_usd: { range: [0, 20000000000000], default: 250000000000 } imports_usd: { range: [0, 20000000000000], default: 280000000000 } fx_reserves_usd: { range: [0, 5000000000000], default: 120000000000 } external_debt_usd: { range: [0, 10000000000000], default: 300000000000 } # Health & Society hospital_capacity: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } outbreak_response_speed: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } vaccination_coverage: { range: [0,100], default: 60 } sanitation: { range: [0,100], default: 60 } urban_density: { enum: [low, medium, high], default: medium } refugee_flow: { enum: [none, low, medium, high], default: low } # Security & External active_manpower_count: { range: [0, 10000000], default: 450000 } tension: { range: [0,100], default: 25 } stockpiles: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } manpower_quality: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } operational_fatigue: { range: [0,100], default: 25 } logistics: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } sanctions_exposure: { range: [0,100], default: 20 } international_reputation: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } alliance_trust: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } treaty_compliance: { range: [0,100], default: 70 } # Strategic posture / regional power balance (added) regional_influence: { range: [0,100], default: 50 } strategic_posture: { enum: [defensive, balanced, assertive], default: balanced } # Demographics regional_inequality: { enum: [low, medium, high], default: medium } discrimination_index: { range: [0,100], default: 30 } ethnic_tension_level: { enum: [low, medium, high], default: low } autonomy_satisfaction: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } # Election & Politics (single source: next_election_days) next_election_days: { range: [-99999, 99999], default: 1460 } next_election_date: { type: "date", default: "2026-01-15" } # UX only last_election_date: { type: "date", default: "2025-08-22" } election_sync: days_override_date: true # HARDLOCK: days is source of truth ruling_party_support: { range: [0, 100], default: 52 } opposition_unity: { range: [0, 100], default: 40 } voter_turnout_projected: { range: [0, 100], default: 85 } # =========================================== # ✅ NEW: SMALL FEATURES (FLOW-CHANGERS) # =========================================== # 1) STATE FATIGUE (YORGUNLUK) state\_fatigue: { range: [0,100], default: 10 } # accumulates with crises/actions reform\_effectiveness: { range: [0,100], default: 65 } # affected by fatigue, unrest, elite drift bureaucratic\_throughput: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } # affects how well policies execute # 2) ELITE DRIFT (ELİT SAPMASI) elite\_trust: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } # separate from public support elite\_drift\_risk: { range: [0,100], default: 10 } # sabotage/coup/passive resistance pressure # 3) LAGGED CONSEQUENCES (GECİKMELİ ETKİ) lagged\_impact\_pressure: { range: [0,100], default: 0 } # hidden backlog; spikes later lagged\_impact\_window\_days: { range: [0,3650], default: 540 } # typical delay window (18 months UX) =========================================== TAGS & MEMORY =========================================== tags: is_at_war: { range: [0,1], default: 0 } war_weariness: { range: [0,100], default: 0 } media_pressure: { range: [0,100], default: 20 } strike_probability: { range: [0,100], default: 10 } hardliner_backlash: { range: [0,100], default: 10 } investor_confidence: { range: [0,100], default: 55 } outbreak_damage_multiplier: { range: [50,150], default: 100 } # Corporate Tags corporate_market_stress: { range: [0,100], default: 20 } foreign_asset_seizure_risk: { range: [0,100], default: 5 } ai_fiscal_report_compliance: { range: [0,1], default: 0 } # Election Tags is_election_season: { range: [0, 1], default: 0 } election_fraud_risk: { range: [0, 100], default: 5 } caretaker_government: { range: [0, 1], default: 0 } # Reporting Memory reporting_memory: last_year: inflation: { default: 10 } gdp_growth: { default: 2.5 } unemployment: { default: 8 } debt: { default: 60 } production: { default: 60 } trade_balance: { default: 0 } exports_usd: { default: 250000000000 } imports_usd: { default: 280000000000 } fx_reserves_usd: { default: 120000000000 } external_debt_usd: { default: 300000000000 } gdp_nominal_usd: { default: 850000000000 } last_6_months: active_manpower_count: { default: 450000 } stockpiles: { default: 55 } gdp_nominal_usd: { default: 850000000000 } # =========================================== # ✅ NEW: LAGGED MEMORY (STORES REAL BACKLOG, NO FAKE NUMBERS) # =========================================== lagged\_memory: backlog\_slots: # engine uses these as buckets; AI does not invent values fiscal\_backlog\_pressure: { range: [0,100], default: 0 } social\_backlog\_pressure: { range: [0,100], default: 0 } elite\_backlog\_pressure: { range: [0,100], default: 0 } last\_triggered\_date: { type: "date", default: "N/A" }