Pacific Cold War: Mexico 2018

The scenario covers the Pacific corridor represented by the map, from Nayarit and Sinaloa to Durango and Baja California Sur. Sinaloa is the core of the competition between FECH, Mayos, and FEDI; the Beltranes project influence from the sierra, and FED retains its main space in Baja California Sur, in addition to its position in El Dorado. Nayarit, the mountain interior, and several border zones remain under state presence or that of independent cells. The tension does not yet amount to total war: agreements, uncertainty regarding loyalties, and federal pressure keep several exits open.

On January 15, 2018, the criminal balance in northwestern Mexico is maintained through informal pacts, rivalries, and overlapping zones of influence. FECH, Mayos, FED, Beltranes, and FEDI are avoiding open war for now, but several smaller cells are acting with autonomy, and the State is increasing pressure on the most sensitive corridors.

Las células menores pueden cambiar de alineación cuando pierden apoyo, reciben una oferta creíble o entran en conflicto con su bloque de referencia. Las operaciones federales aumentan la presión institucional y pueden alterar el control local sin transferir automáticamente una zona a otra facción. Las decisiones que dependan de comunicación entre Sinaloa, Durango y Baja California Sur deben respetar la distancia y la separación marítima del Golfo de California. Los acuerdos entre facciones principales son frágiles y cualquier ruptura local puede elevar la tensión antes de producir un cambio territorial.